Highlights

• • Market price implies ~69.1% — our model gives ~73%
• • Edge is modest (~5.7% ROI) but statistically positive

Pros

• + Clear surface and experience advantage for Maestrelli
• + Significantly larger match sample and better win-loss record

Cons

• - Edge is modest; small margins on Challenger grass matches can swing outcomes
• - Limited detailed recent-form/injury data in the provided research increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Francesco Maestrelli is the clear favorite based on a much larger match sample (47-29) and documented experience on grass versus Andrew Paulson's limited career (5-9) and surfaces concentrated on clay. The market price of 1.448 implies a 69.05% win probability. We assess Maestrelli's true win probability at ~73.0% given superior form, experience on the surface, and a higher career win rate, which produces positive expected value. EV calculation: 0.73 * 1.448 - 1 = +0.057 (5.7% ROI). Given the information available, that edge is modest but actionable at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Maestrelli has substantially more match experience and a stronger career win-loss record
• • Match is on grass and Maestrelli is listed as having grass experience while Paulson's profile shows clay as primary surface
• • Market-implied probability (69.05%) is below our estimated true probability (73%), creating value