Highlights

• • Chepelev's deep experience and recent clay wins
• • Current price (1.181) underestimates Chepelev by ~3.3 percentage points

Pros

• + Positive expected value at quoted home price
• + Low variance matchup when backing a heavy favourite on clay

Cons

• - Edge is modest; small ROI relative to stake risk
• - Limited head-to-head and short-term form detail for both players increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Andrey Chepelev is significantly the stronger player on clay against Fermin Tenti given Chepelev's extensive match experience (292-248 career) and demonstrated recent wins on clay, while Tenti is early in his career (6-12) with limited match volume. The market price of 1.181 implies an 84.7% win probability; we assess Chepelev's true win probability at ~88%, which creates positive edge. There are no reported injuries or surface mismatches in the provided research that would materially reduce Chepelev's edge. The margin is modest but positive: at our probability the expected ROI on a 1.181 quote is ~3.9%.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Chepelev (540 matches) vs Tenti (18 matches)
• • Surface familiarity: both play clay but Chepelev has extensive clay results
• • Market odds imply ~84.7% vs our 88% estimate (small positive edge)