Highlights

• • Chepelev shows fresh clay form and greater experience
• • Market heavily favours Chepelev; edge does not exceed vig-adjusted threshold

Pros

• + Chepelev’s recent clay results and larger match sample support him as the stronger pick
• + We used a conservative probability (78%) rather than overrating small-sample noise

Cons

• - Market price is short enough that even a modest estimation error would remove any EV
• - Limited head-to-head and sparse cross-surface comparison for Miladinovic increases uncertainty

Details

The market strongly favours Chepelev at 1.196 (implied ~83.6%). Our assessment gives Chepelev a true chance of about 78% based on: recent clay wins for Chepelev, both players having clay/hard experience but Chepelev showing immediate clay form, and career-win rates that are comparable but with Chepelev having much larger sample size and recent clay results. At our estimated p=0.78 the fair decimal price is 1.282, which is longer than the market 1.196 — so the favorite is overpriced. The away price (4.25) would require a true probability of ≥0.22 (fair odds ≥4.545) to be +EV; our residual probability for Miladinovic (1-0.78=0.22) makes the fair away odds ~4.545, so the current 4.25 is also short of value. Given the vig in the market and the narrow margin between our estimate and the implied market probability, neither side offers positive expected value at available prices.

Key factors

• • Chepelev recent wins on clay indicating current surface form advantage
• • Comparable career win-rates but Chepelev has far greater match experience
• • Market-implied probability (83.6%) exceeds our estimate (78%) — favourite is overpriced
• • Away price would need ~4.545 to be +EV vs our estimated 22% for Miladinovic