Highlights

• • Market implies ~55.8% for Chepelev; we estimate 59%
• • Positive EV ~0.058 per unit at current price 1.794

Pros

• + Significantly greater match experience and depth
• + Recent wins on clay at this tournament level

Cons

• - Limited direct H2H data and imperfect match-level stats
• - Milic's small-sample higher win rate introduces variance and upset risk

Details

We see a clear experience imbalance: Andrey Chepelev has a long, deep match history (540 matches) and recent wins on clay at this level, while Ognjen Milic has a much smaller sample (36 matches) despite a higher raw win rate. Both players are clay specialists and the market currently prices Chepelev at decimal 1.794 (implied ~55.8%). Adjusting for Milic's small-sample inflation and Chepelev's superior match experience and recent form in M15 events, we estimate Chepelev's true win probability at 59.0%, which is above the market-implied 55.8% and therefore represents positive value. At our probability the minimum fair odds would be 1.695; the available 1.794 offers an expected value (ROI) of ~0.058 per unit staked. We note residual uncertainty from the limited head-to-head and odd/stat reporting, so the edge is modest but actionable at current prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap favoring Chepelev (540 matches vs 36 matches)
• • Recent tournament wins for Chepelev on clay at the M15 level
• • Milic's higher career win rate is on a small sample and may be inflated