Highlights

• • Home price (1.189) implies ~84.1% — we estimate ~82.0%
• • Neither side offers positive EV at the quoted odds

Pros

• + Chepelev: extensive match experience and recent clay wins
• + Surface (clay) appears to favor the more experienced player

Cons

• - Market has already compressed probability toward the favorite, leaving little or no edge
• - Fiorentini's recent form and limited match sample reduce likelihood of profitable upset

Details

We compare the market prices (home 1.189 / away 4.29) to our assessment based on career records, recent form on clay, and venue context. Andrey Chepelev has a deep career sample (292-248) and recent clay wins, so we view him as the clear favorite, but not sufficiently more likely to win than the market implies. The market-implied probability for Chepelev at 1.189 is ~84.1%; our estimated true win probability is ~82.0%, which yields a small negative EV at the quoted favorite price. We also tested the underdog line (4.29); Fiorentini's short career (16-24) and recent losses on clay make a true probability materially below what would be needed (≈23.3%) to justify backing her. Given both sides show no positive expected value at the provided prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Chepelev has significantly larger career sample and recent clay wins indicating form advantage
• • Fiorentini's short career record and recent losses on clay reduce her upset probability
• • Market implies Chepelev >84% win probability; our assessment is ~82% — no value on the favorite