Highlights

• • Home implied probability 77.6% vs our estimate 74%
• • Stankovic would need >29.5% chance to be +EV at 3.39, which we view as unlikely

Pros

• + Chepelev has superior experience and recent clay results
• + Both players are clay specialists so surface advantage for either is limited

Cons

• - Market favorite price (1.289) is short and leaves no margin for estimation error
• - Small-sample volatility for Stankovic increases uncertainty around any upset value

Details

We see the market prices Andrey Chepelev as a heavy favorite (decimal 1.289, implied ~77.6%). From the provided profiles Chepelev has a long track record (540 matches, ~54% career win rate) and recent wins on clay; Simeon Stankovic is far less experienced (30 matches, 50% career win rate) and has recent clay losses at M15 events. Both players are clay specialists, but Chepelev's experience and recent form give him a clear edge. After accounting for surface, sample sizes and recent form, we estimate Chepelev's true win probability at 74%. That is materially below the market-implied ~77.6%, so the current favorite price is slightly overpriced by the market (market is more optimistic than our model) but not enough to create positive expected value at the available odds. Betting the away player also shows no value: Stankovic would need ~29.5% true probability to break even at 3.39, but his form and experience make that unlikely. Therefore we recommend no side — no positive EV exists at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Chepelev has substantially greater experience and recent clay wins
• • Stankovic has small sample size (30 matches) and recent losses on clay
• • Market-implied probability (77.6%) slightly exceeds our estimated true probability (74%)