Andreya Glushkova vs Andreea Diana Soare

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for away = 72.46%; our estimate = 70.0%
• • Required decimal for positive EV on away = 1.429; current = 1.38

Pros

• + Favorite price reflects strong market confidence — likely the safer match outcome
• + Small negative edge (-3.4%) is easy to avoid in absence of confirming info

Cons

• - No independent data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to justify taking the market-on favorite
• - Tight margin between implied and estimated probabilities creates high sensitivity to new info

Details

We have no external match data returned, so we apply a conservative market-driven estimate. The market prices imply a 72.46% chance for the away player (1 / 1.38) and 34.72% for the home player (1 / 2.88). We estimate the away player (Andreea Diana Soare) has a true win probability of 70.0% given the heavy market favoritism but lack of confirmatory detail; this is slightly below the implied 72.46%, so the favorite is slightly overvalued by the market. At our estimate the fair decimal price for the away side would be 1.429; with the current market price of 1.38 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.70 * 1.38 - 1 = -0.034, or -3.4% ROI). Because we cannot identify positive EV at the available prices and we lack surface, form, injury, and H2H information to justify a larger deviation from market implied probabilities, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external research returned; high uncertainty
• • Market odds imply the away favorite ~72.5% — we conservatively estimate ~70%
• • Current favourite price (1.38) yields slightly negative EV versus our estimate