Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability 73.5% vs our estimated 72.0%
• • Required minimum odds for value: 1.389; market offers 1.361

Pros

• + Staeheli has the stronger career record and recent clay wins, making him the logical favorite
• + Market is tight - verdicts are clear and easy to apply (no marginal value)

Cons

• - Bookmaker price is slightly too short to yield positive EV
• - Limited data depth for H2H or injury specifics increases outcome uncertainty

Details

We compared the market prices to our estimate of true probability. Luca Staeheli is the clear favorite at 1.361 (implied ~73.5%) based on his longer pro experience and better career win rate (26-40 vs Casanova 17-43). Recent form also favors Staeheli slightly (he has recent match wins on clay; Casanova’s recent results show losses). We estimate Staeheli’s true win probability at 72.0% (0.72). That implies minimum fair decimal odds of 1.389. The current best available price (1.361) is shorter than the fair odds, giving a negative edge: EV = 0.72 * 1.361 - 1 ≈ -0.020. Because expected value at current market prices is negative, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Staeheli (26-40) materially stronger than Casanova (17-43)
• • Recent form on clay: Casanova has recent losses; Staeheli shows mixed form with recent wins
• • Market price implies ~73.5% for Staeheli, slightly above our 72% estimate (no value once bookmaker margin considered)