Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~76.3% (1.312 odds)
• • Our estimated true probability: 65% → requires at least 1.538 odds for break-even

Pros

• + Home is priced as a clear favorite which usually indicates a higher baseline chance
• + We have at least partial player data (Zaar) to temper assumptions rather than pure guesswork

Cons

• - Available research indicates weak recent form for the referenced player
• - Critical missing information (partner form, opponents' doubles strength, injuries) raises uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.312 => implied 76.3%) to our estimated win likelihood. Available research is limited to one player (Lisa Zaar) showing a weak recent record and inconsistent form; we have no reliable data on doubles chemistry, partners' form, or H2H. Given that uncertainty, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at ~65.0%, which is materially below the market-implied ~76.3%, producing a negative expected value at the current decimal price. To be profitable at the current market price the true win probability would need to exceed ~76.3%, which we do not find supported by the research. Therefore we do not recommend backing the home favorite at 1.312.

Key factors

• • Market implies a very high probability (≈76%) for the home side
• • Research shows limited and poor recent form for Lisa Zaar; no confirming doubles data for partners
• • Significant information gaps on opponents and team chemistry increase uncertainty