Aneta Kucmova / Lisa Zaar vs Alena Fomina-Klotz / Giorgia Pedone

Highlights

• • Home odds imply a 75.5% win probability
• • Our estimated true probability is ~62%, making the price unprofitable

Pros

• + Clear market consensus favoring the home pair
• + Some match-level data exists for one player (Zaar) to analyze form

Cons

• - Zaar's recent results are weak and do not support the heavy favorite pricing
• - No reliable doubles-specific or opponent information in the research to justify the market edge

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.323, implied 75.5%) to the available evidence. The only concrete player data in the research is a limited Lisa Zaar career profile showing weak recent results (10-21 overall, recent losses on clay and hard). There is insufficient positive information on doubles form, partnership chemistry, or opponent weakness to justify the market's heavy favoritism. We estimate the home pair's true win probability materially below the market-implied 75.5%, so there is no value at the current home price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (75.5%) is high relative to available evidence
• • Lisa Zaar's recent match record is weak (10-21) with recent losses on clay and hard
• • Insufficient data on doubles partnerships and opponents to support a >75% true win chance