Aneta Kucmova vs Noma Noha Akugue

Highlights

• • Bookmaker price (1.469) implies ~68% for Noma; our conservative estimate is ~35%
• • Insufficient data on Aneta prevents a confident contrarian lay of the favorite

Pros

• + The research suggests the market may be overestimating Noma based on her documented record and recent form
• + If additional data on Aneta showed she is markedly superior, the 2.71 price would likely represent strong value

Cons

• - No performance, surface, or injury data for Aneta in the provided research—major information gap
• - Our Noma-based estimate is necessarily conservative and uncertain; market signals may reflect info not in the supplied sources

Details

We compare the market prices (Aneta 2.71, Noma 1.469) to a conservative estimated win probability for Noma based only on the provided research. Noma Noha Akugue’s documented career record in the research is 10-21 (~32% win rate) with recent losses, which suggests her true win probability vs an unspecified opponent is substantially lower than the market-implied ~68% (1/1.469). Given the lack of any performance data for Aneta Kucmova in the supplied material and the uncertainty over surface/venue, we adopt a conservative estimated true probability for Noma of 35%. At that estimate, the favorite price (1.469) is heavily overvalued and produces a negative EV (EV = 0.35*1.469 - 1 ≈ -0.486), so backing Noma is not value. Conversely, that same estimate would imply Aneta’s true win probability of ~65%, which makes the 2.71 price look superficially attractive; however, because we have no independent data on Aneta in the provided research and insufficient corroborating evidence (surface, H2H, injuries), we cannot confidently assert the 65% figure and therefore will not recommend backing Aneta. Bottom line: prices suggest heavy market confidence in Noma that is not supported by the available data, but the information gap on Aneta means we decline to take a position.

Key factors

• • Noma Noha Akugue career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) from the provided research
• • Recent documented losses in the research context indicating poor short-term form
• • Market strongly favors Noma at 1.469 despite limited supporting data and unknown opponent details (Aneta data missing)