Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.24) ≈ 80.6%
• • Required odds for +EV with our estimate: ≥ 1.333

Pros

• + Favorite is priced strongly — lower variance outcome if correct
• + If additional data emerges showing the favorite is underpriced, value could appear

Cons

• - Current prices give negative expected value versus our conservative probability
• - Lack of research data (form/injuries/surface/H2H) increases model uncertainty

Details

We compared the market prices to a conservative estimated win probability. The market-implied probability for the home (1.24) is about 80.6% (1/1.24). Given no additional research data (no form, surface, injuries, or H2H information), we adopt a conservative true probability estimate of 75% for the favorite to allow margin for unknowns. At that estimate the home price (1.24) yields negative expectation (0.75*1.24 - 1 = -0.07). The away side is also negative-value under the same assumptions (implied market odds 3.7, our away probability 25% gives -0.075 EV). To achieve positive EV on the favorite we would need decimal odds ≧ 1/0.75 = 1.333, which is higher than the available 1.24. Therefore there is no value at current prices and we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.24) ≈ 80.6%, above our conservative estimate
• • No available research on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — increases uncertainty
• • To be +EV the favorite would need odds ≥ 1.333; current market is shorter