Angela Fita Boluda / Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova / Tara Wuerth

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 65% vs our 62% estimate
• • Required fair odds for value on home are >= 1.613; current 1.538 is too short

Pros

• + Home team contains an experienced doubles player (Rus), which supports a above-50% baseline
• + Both teams have clay exposure, reducing surface-driven surprises

Cons

• - Research provides weak, mixed recent-form signals and limited doubles partnership data
• - Small sample sizes and unclear partner chemistry create higher variance in outcomes

Details

We estimate the home pair (Fita Boluda / Rus) is the market favorite because of Rus's experience and both players' familiarity with clay, but available recent-form data is mixed and there is little doubles-specific information on partnerships. The bookmaker-implied probability for the home side at 1.538 is approximately 65.0%, while our assessed true win probability for the home side is 62.0%. That implies the current price (1.538) is too short relative to our view (EV = 0.62 * 1.538 - 1 = -0.046), so there is no positive expected value on either side at current published decimals. Given limited doubles-specific sample sizes, unclear partner synergy, and contradictory recent singles results in the research, we avoid recommending a bet and instead provide the minimum fair odds that would justify backing the home side.

Key factors

• • Arantxa Rus brings significant experience and is the main reason the pair is favored
• • Limited doubles-specific form and partner synergy data increases uncertainty
• • Bookmaker-implied probability (65%) is above our assessed true probability (62%) — no value