Angela Fita Boluda vs Anouk Koevermans

Highlights

• • We estimate Anouk's win probability at 51.5%; required odds for value are ≥ 1.942
• • Current market favourite (Anouk at 1.833) offers negative expected value versus our model

Pros

• + Match is balanced and predictable variance is moderate
• + Market pricing is available and transparent for re-evaluation if lines move

Cons

• - No clear edge in form, surface, or injury information to justify a value bet
• - Current prices sit below our required thresholds for a positive EV play

Details

We estimate this is a very even matchup with no clear edge from the provided data (identical win-loss records, similar recent form, no injury or surface advantage reported). The market makes Anouk Koevermans the marginal favorite at 1.833 (implied probability ~54.5%), while Angela Fita Boluda is offered 1.971 (implied ~50.7%). Our assessed true probability for the likeliest winner (Anouk) is 51.5% (0.515). At the current Anouk price of 1.833 the expected value would be EV = 0.515 * 1.833 - 1 = -0.056 (negative), so there is no positive-value play on either side. To back Anouk profitably we would need min required decimal odds = 1 / 0.515 = 1.942; the market quote (1.833) is below that. Similarly, backing Angela at 1.971 would require her true win probability to be > 0.507, which we do not believe is supported by the data. Given the lack of reliable differentiators and negative EV at current prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • No injuries, clear surface advantage, or head-to-head edge provided to justify an edge
• • Market favors Anouk slightly but price is still below our breakeven threshold for value