Highlights

• • Market-implied home win probability (~68%) looks inflated versus comparable profiles
• • At our estimated true win probability (44%), the away price 2.76 yields ~21% ROI

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available away price
• + Decision based on parity in records and lack of distinguishing info favoring home

Cons

• - Limited data in research: no H2H, ranking, or explicit surface/venue confirmation
• - If there are unreported factors (injury, local conditions, ranking edge) they could invalidate the edge

Details

We view the market as overstating the home-side probability. Both players have almost identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21), with no clear performance or injury edge for the home player. The market moneyline (home 1.463, away 2.76) implies a ~68% chance for the home player, which is inconsistent with the available profiles showing parity. We estimate the away player has substantially better chance than the market-implied ~36%, creating positive EV on the away moneyline at 2.76.

Key factors

• • Near-identical career records and recent results in the provided data (no clear form advantage)
• • Market implies a large home-favourite edge that is not supported by the profiles provided
• • No injury or surface advantage shown in the research to justify short home price