Highlights

• • Players appear closely matched based on provided stats
• • Away price 3.21 is above our fair threshold (2.857) and offers positive EV

Pros

• + Clear numerical mismatch between implied market probability and our assessment
• + Simple, defensible model based on parity in provided career/recent stats

Cons

• - Research contains limited differentiating information and no H2H or injury details
• - Estimate relies on subjective assessment of parity; outcome variance is high

Details

We see both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on clay and hard courts, which suggests they are much closer in level than the market implies. The book market prices Angela Fita Boluda at 1.353 (implied ~73.9%), which appears inflated given the parity in the research. With limited differentiation from the profiles (no clear recent form or surface edge), we estimate Carlota Martinez Cirez's true chance around 35%. At the current away price of 3.21 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.21 - 1 ≈ +0.124 per unit). We therefore recommend taking the away moneyline only because the offered decimal 3.21 exceeds our minimum fair price (~2.857) for that probability.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent results for both players (10-21), indicating parity
• • Both have matches on clay and hard in the research; no clear surface advantage identified
• • Market heavily favors the home player (1.353) which looks overstated given the available data