Angelica Raggi vs Laura Boehner

Highlights

• • Market implies ~90.9% for the home player; our estimate ≈50%
• • Required decimal odds for value are ≥2.00; current price is 1.10

Pros

• + Clear decision: current price is demonstrably unfavourable so we avoid a negative EV wager
• + Research shows no decisive edge to support taking the heavy favorite

Cons

• - If there are unreported factors (injury to away, ranking gap, home conditions) they might justify the market price but were not present in the supplied data
• - Passively waiting for value means missing the chance if unseen information actually favors the favorite

Details

We see the market heavily favors the home player (Angelica Raggi) at 1.10 (implied win probability ≈ 90.9%), but the available player data shows nearly identical profiles and recent form for both players (both 10-21 records, same surfaces, no clear H2H or injury edge). Given symmetric evidence from the research, our assessed true win probability for the home side is about 50.0%. At that probability the fair price would be ~2.00 decimal, far above the offered 1.10. Therefore there is no value on either side at the current prices and betting the favorite would be a strongly negative-expected-value play.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical records and recent form in the supplied research (10-21)
• • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage is present in the provided information to justify a 90%+ market price
• • Current market price (1.10) implies a win probability far above any defensible estimate from the data