Highlights

• • Raggi's career win rate (10/31) implies roughly 32% historical success, far below the market-implied ~96%
• • Fair price based on our estimate is ~2.857; current 1.04 is strongly negative EV

Pros

• + The market strongly favours the home player, which could reflect inside information not in the provided data
• + If additional reliable intel emerges showing Raggi is vastly stronger than her record suggests, the market price could be accurate

Cons

• - Available performance data shows poor recent results and a sub-50% career win rate
• - No data provided on the opponent to justify the extreme disparity in quoted odds

Details

We compare the market price (Angelica Raggi 1.04, Silvia Alletti 9.0) to a realistic assessment based on the available player data. Raggi's documented record (10-21 across 31 matches) and recent form are poor, which does not support a ~96% implied win probability reflected by 1.04. With no information on Alletti in the provided research, we conservatively estimate Raggi's true win probability around 35%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~2.857, so the offered home price of 1.04 offers large negative expectation and no value. The away price (9.0) would only be +EV if we assessed Alletti's win probability >11.11% (1/9), but with no evidence to push her chance that high relative to Raggi's documented match history, we cannot justify backing the underdog either. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Raggi's documented career win rate is low (10-21 in 31 matches)
• • Market-implied probability for Raggi (≈96%) is inconsistent with her form and record
• • No provided information about Silvia Alletti to justify large underdog pricing