Angelica Moratelli / Darja Semenistaja vs Tayisiya Morderger / Yana Morderger

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (~85%) appears unrealistic versus the researched form
• • Underdog away price (4.35) offers a material edge if true win chance is ~30%

Pros

• + Current odds (4.35) produce a clear positive EV using conservative probability estimates
• + Both pairs have similar results in research, so large market skew likely represents value

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific and head-to-head data, increasing model uncertainty
• - Both teams show poor recent results overall, so upset variance is high

Details

The market is pricing the Moratelli/Semenistaja pair as overwhelmingly likely (decimal 1.172, implied ~85%); that level of favoritism is inconsistent with the available player data. All four players show very similar career-level records (10-21) and recent results on hard and clay, with no clear evidence of a significant form or surface edge for the home team in the research provided. The Morderger duo (Tayisiya and Yana) present comparable credentials and potential doubles cohesion as siblings, which the market appears to undervalue at 4.35 (implied ~23%). Using a conservative estimated true win probability of 30% for the Morderger pair gives positive expected value at current prices (EV = 0.305 per unit). Because the public market probability for the favorites seems overstated relative to the comparable profiles and recent form, the away side represents value at the current widely-available price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.172) is ~85% — very large and likely overstated given the data
• • All four players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent losses on hard/clay — no clear form advantage
• • Potential teamwork/cohesion edge for the Morderger siblings not reflected in the price