Angelica Raggi vs Marta Lombardini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet: the market prices Raggi as a strong favorite but the supplied career and recent-form data do not support that level of probability, so no value exists at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Raggi: ~74.6% (1.341)
- • Our estimated probability for Raggi based on provided data: 33% → fair odds ≈ 3.03
Pros
- + We rely only on the supplied player performance profile and recent results
- + Clear numeric mismatch between market odds and supplied win-rate supports caution
Cons
- - No data supplied for Marta Lombardini, preventing a balanced probability model
- - Limited match-level/contextual details (surface, injuries, H2H) in the provided research increase uncertainty
Details
We estimate Angelica Raggi's true chance to win this match materially below the market-implied probability. The market moneyline of 1.341 implies a win probability of ~74.6%, but Raggi's career record from the provided profile is 10-21 (≈32.3%) and recent form notes multiple losses in the last results shown. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 33% for Raggi (based solely on the supplied career and recent-match information), the minimum fair decimal price to back her would be ~3.03. Backing Raggi at the current 1.341 would produce strongly negative expected value (EV = 0.33 * 1.341 - 1 ≈ -0.557). We have no supplied data on Marta Lombardini to credibly estimate her true probability independently, so we cannot identify value on the away side either. Given the large divergence between market odds and the supplied performance data, there is no value bet at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Angelica Raggi career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) from supplied profile
- • Recent results in the provided snippet show multiple losses, indicating weak form
- • Market heavily favors Raggi (implied ~74.6%), which conflicts with the supplied performance data