Angelica Sara vs Arianna Zucchini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We view Angelica Sara as underpriced by the market; at 4.6 we estimate positive value with an estimated true win probability of 35% and an EV of +0.61 per unit staked.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for the away player (~85%) appears overstated vs. the supplied profiles
- • Home price (4.6) comfortably exceeds our min-required odds (2.857) for a 35% win chance
Pros
- + Large upside if the match is as even as the research suggests
- + Current price provides a strong margin above the break-even odds for our estimate
Cons
- - Research contains limited depth (no head-to-head, ranking or injury details) increasing uncertainty
- - Bet relies on the assumption that the market skew is unjustified — it could reflect outside information not in the provided data
Details
We see both players' profiles in the research showing effectively identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on the same surfaces. The market heavily favors the away player at 1.17 (implied ~85%); given the symmetric evidence in the provided data, we view the match as far more competitive and assign Angelica Sara a substantially higher true chance than the market implies. At our estimated true probability for the home win (35%), the current decimal price of 4.6 offers clear value (EV = 0.35 * 4.6 - 1 = 0.61). We therefore recommend backing the home player only because the quoted price materially exceeds our min-required odds for that probability.
Key factors
- • Both players have near-identical career records and recent form in the supplied data
- • Market implies a very large favorite (away ~85%) that is not supported by the provided profiles
- • No injury or surface advantage information in the research to justify the market skew