Highlights

• • Market implies ~98% for Away (1.02) while documented form suggests ~33%
• • Required fair odds for our estimate would be ~3.03, far above market prices

Pros

• + We rely on concrete career stats for the favored player rather than market sentiment
• + Conservative approach avoids overbetting on an implausible market probability

Cons

• - No data provided on the home player limits the precision of our probability estimate
• - If the home player is truly inexperienced or unranked, market pricing could be correct and our estimate too generous

Details

We compare the market price (Away Elena-Teodora Cadar at 1.02, implied ~98%) to a realistic estimate based on the available player data. The only provided performance data is Cadar's career record of 10-21 (31 matches) and recent losses, which implies a career win rate near 32%. There is no information on the home player (Angelina Maria Irene Pavel) in the research, so we cannot justify an implied 98% probability. Using Cadar's documented win-rate and recent losses, we estimate her true win probability at 33% (0.33). At the current decimal price of 1.02, the expected value would be negative (EV = 0.33*1.02 - 1 = -0.663), so there is no value to back the heavy market favorite. Conversely, the home price of 15.0 implies a win probability of ~6.67%, which could be attractive only if we believed the home player had ~3x+ the chance implied by the market; we have no evidence to support that. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Cadar career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) — weak historical win rate
• • Recent form shows losses in recent matches, not indicating improvement
• • Market price (1.02) implies an unrealistic ~98% chance absent supporting evidence