Angelina Voloshchuk vs Katherine Sebov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given the limited data showing near-identical profiles, the 4.02 price on Voloshchuk appears to offer value versus the market-implied probability; we estimate a ~28% win chance yielding roughly 12.6% EV at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies Sebov ~82.6% — research doesn't justify such dominance
- • At 4.02 Voloshchuk has positive EV under conservative probability assumptions
Pros
- + Significant upside if our more conservative probability estimate is correct
- + No injury or form advantage noted for Sebov in the supplied research to justify heavy favoritism
Cons
- - Research is limited and lacks ranking/H2H/context — high uncertainty remains
- - Market may be incorporating external information not present in the provided sources
Details
The market prices Katherine Sebov at 1.21 (implied win probability ~82.6%) which is difficult to reconcile with the research provided: both players show identical career spans and overall records (10-21) and similar recent form with recent losses. With no injury flags or clear surface advantage in the supplied data, we estimate Angelina Voloshchuk's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 24.9% for the 4.02 quote. Using a conservative true probability of 28% for Voloshchuk and the available decimal price of 4.02, EV = 0.28 * 4.02 - 1 = 0.1256 (12.6% ROI). In contrast, backing Sebov at 1.21 offers negative EV under our assessment because the market implies ~82.6% while the research does not support such a large gap.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical records and similar recent form in the provided research (10-21), reducing evidence for a large skill gap
- • Market heavily favors the away player (1.21) which implies an 82.6% win chance that is not supported by the supplied data
- • No injury information or clear surface advantage in the research, increasing uncertainty and making the underdog price more attractive