Highlights

• • Home implied probability (78.7%) appears overstated vs. documented form
• • Away at 3.64 offers ~0.20 units EV per 1 unit staked under our conservative estimate

Pros

• + Significant mismatch between market-implied probability and documented recent form of the favorite
• + Current odds (3.64) comfortably exceed our breakeven threshold (3.03)

Cons

• - Research contains no direct information on Ulyana Hrabavets, increasing uncertainty in the true probability estimate
• - Small sample and limited data on venue/surface specifics mean our estimate is conservative but still uncertain

Details

We view the market price of Angelina Wirges at 1.271 (implied win probability ~78.7%) as implausibly high given the available profile. Wirges' documented 10-21 career record and poor recent form (multiple recent losses in ITF/Challenger events) do not support such a dominant pre-match probability. The research shows she has struggled recently across clay and hard courts, which lowers our confidence in her as a heavy favorite. With no positive information supplied about Ulyana Hrabavets, the fair win probability for the underdog is still materially higher than the market-implied 27.5% (3.64). Conservatively, we estimate Ulyana Hrabavets' true win probability at 33%; at the quoted 3.64 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.33*3.64 - 1 ≈ 0.201). Therefore we recommend taking the away side as value at current prices. We used the current moneyline for the away side (3.64) in the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Angelina Wirges' poor overall record (10-21) and recent losing form
• • Market implies an unusually high probability for Wirges (78.7%) that is not supported by her recent results
• • Quoted away price (3.64) is sufficiently large that a conservative true win probability (~33%) yields positive EV