Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (Quevedo) is ~83%, which is not supported by the provided profiles.
• • A conservative true probability of 38% for Voloshchuk yields strong positive expected value at 4.05.

Pros

• + Large mismatch between our probability estimate and the market price creates clear mathematical value
• + Both players' profiles in the research are similar, reducing justification for the short favorite price

Cons

• - Small-sample players with limited data — outcomes can be highly volatile and market may have information not in the research
• - No head-to-head, surface-specific, or venue details provided to further validate the edge

Details

We find value backing Angelina Voloshchuk at 4.05. The public market prices Kaitlin Quevedo at 1.20 (implied ~83%), which is extreme given the research: both players show essentially identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay/hard) with no reported injuries or clear form edge in the provided data. There is no head-to-head or venue information in the research to justify such a short price on Quevedo. We therefore estimate Voloshchuk's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 24.7% for the 4.05 line. Using a conservative true probability of 38% for Voloshchuk, the EV at the quoted 4.05 is positive (EV = 0.38*4.05 - 1 = 0.539). We used the current home decimal odds (4.05) for the EV calculation. Given the sparse and symmetric data in the research, the large gap between our estimated probability and the market price indicates a value opportunity on the home player, while acknowledging uncertainty due to small-sample players and limited match detail.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical recorded career stats in the provided research (10-21), suggesting no clear superiority
• • Market prices Quevedo at 1.20 (implied ~83%) which conflicts with the available evidence and likely overstates her edge
• • No injuries, H2H, or surface-specific differentiator in the research to justify the heavy market favorite