Angelina Wirges vs Aimilia Pandou
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Available data (10-21 career, recent losses) does not support the market-implied ~91% chance for Wirges at 1.10; no value at current prices.
Highlights
- • Wirges has a low career win rate (~32%) and recent losing form
- • Current price (1.10) implies a win probability far above what the profile supports
Pros
- + Market clearly favors the home player, so a large price would be required to find value
- + If additional information showed the opponent was unranked/absent or injured, value could appear
Cons
- - We only have data on Wirges; absence of opponent data increases uncertainty
- - Current odds are heavily skewed and produce a large negative EV based on conservative probability estimates
Details
We compare the market price (Angelina Wirges at 1.10 implied ~90.9%) to what the limited player data justifies. The only concrete data available shows Wirges with a career record of 10-21 (~32% historical win rate) across clay and hard and a run of recent defeats in the latest matches provided, which indicates weak form rather than a 90% win probability. There is no information provided on Aimilia Pandou (ranking, recent form, injuries) that would justify inflating Wirges' true win probability to the level implied by 1.10. Given Wirges' documented losing record and recent losses, we estimate her true win probability materially below the market-implied price, so backing the heavy favorite at 1.10 has a large negative expected value. Therefore we recommend taking no bet at the presented prices; a value would only exist if the home price were at or above the min_required_decimal_odds shown below.
Key factors
- • Wirges career win-rate 10-21 (~32%) indicates limited baseline strength
- • Recent results provided show multiple recent losses, suggesting poor form
- • Market odds (1.10) imply ~90.9% chance which is unsupported by the available profile and no data on the opponent