Angelina Wirges vs Marianna Argyrokastriti
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: Angelina Wirges' estimated win probability (~32%) implies required odds ~3.125, well above the offered 2.20, so we do not recommend a bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied fair odds (by our estimate) ~3.125 vs market 2.20
- • Negative EV at current home price: -0.296 (≈ -29.6% ROI)
Pros
- + Underdog status yields a higher nominal payout if upset occurs
- + Market pricing is clear and widely available (no obscure outlier prices)
Cons
- - Wirges' poor record and recent losses argue against a >32% win probability
- - No opponent data provided to justify taking the market-favored away player on value terms
Details
We use Angelina Wirges' available match record and visible recent form to estimate her true chance of winning at roughly 32%. The market prices Marianna Argyrokastriti as the favorite at decimal 1.60 (implied ~62.5%). At our estimated probability for Wirges (0.320) the fair decimal price would be ~3.125, while the current home price is 2.20 (well below fair value). Using the provided current odds for the home side (2.20) yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.32 * 2.20 - 1 = -0.296). We have no independent data on Argyrokastriti in the provided research to justify a higher probability than the market for the favorite, and Wirges' career record (10-21) and recent losses do not support a higher win probability. Given the negative EV on the underdog at current prices and no countervailing information to reduce the market's edge on the favorite, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Angelina Wirges career record is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and recent form shows multiple losses
- • Market favors the away player at 1.60 (implied ~62.5%) and we have no opponent data to contest that pricing
- • Current home odds (2.20) are well below the fair price implied by our estimate (~3.125), producing negative EV