Angelina Wirges vs Marianne Argyrokastriti
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small-value wager on Angelina Wirges at 2.28 given parity in profiles and the market's heavy favoritism toward Marianne Argyrokastriti; the edge is modest but positive at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~64% for Marianne but research shows no clear basis for that gap
- • Angelina priced at 2.28 requires >=2.222 to be +EV; current price clears that threshold
Pros
- + Quoted home odds (2.28) exceed our breakeven threshold (2.222)
- + Profiles and surfaces are comparable, supporting a closer true probability than the market implies
Cons
- - Both players show weak recent form—outcomes are more volatile and uncertain
- - Edge is small (EV ~2.6%) and could be lost with any unobserved factor (injury, matchup detail, conditions)
Details
We find a small value on the home player Angelina Wirges. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and have played the same surfaces (clay, hard) with similar recent poor form, so an even or near-even true probability is reasonable. The market prices Marianne Argyrokastriti at 1.552 (implied ~64.4%), which appears to overstate her edge given the available data. We estimate Angelina's true win probability at 45%; at the current home price of 2.28 this yields a small positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.28 - 1 = +0.026). The value comes from market skew toward the away player despite parity in record and surface history and no clear injury or form advantage for Marianne in the research. Given limited data and identical profiles the edge is modest but present at the quoted odds.
Key factors
- • Both players have identical career records (10-21) and similar surface histories (clay, hard)
- • Recent form is poor for both; no clear form advantage emerging from provided results
- • Market heavily favors the away player (1.552) creating an underdog price on Angelina that we judge to be slightly undervalued