Highlights

• • Market implies ~94% for Fiona at 1.06; our conservative estimate is ~60%
• • At our estimated probability, the favorite’s fair odds are ~1.667; current price offers negative EV

Pros

• + We err on the side of caution given sparse data on the opponent
• + Analysis uses Fiona’s documented career record and recent form to temper market extremes

Cons

• - Limited information on Anina Lanz prevents exploitation of potential longshot value
• - If unseen contextual factors (injury, withdrawal, opponent strength) exist, our probability estimate could be off

Details

We compared the market prices to a conservative, research-driven estimate. The market makes Fiona Ganz an overwhelming favorite at 1.06 (implied win probability ~94.3%), but the available player data shows a modest career/win sample (10-21 overall) and weak recent form in lower-level events, which argues the market price is overstating certainty. Given the lack of any information about Anina Lanz in the provided research, we cannot confidently flip the market to justify backing the longshot at 8.0 despite the tempting implied probability gap. Using a conservative estimated true win probability for Fiona of 60% (accounting for her match experience and the fact she has played relevant surfaces recently), the fair break-even decimal odds would be 1.667. At the quoted 1.06 the expected ROI is strongly negative, so we refrain from recommending a wager. If one were to target value, the market would need to offer Fiona odds >= 1.667 (or conversely Anina odds >= 2.0 given complementary probability), but those levels are not present.

Key factors

• • Available research shows Fiona Ganz has a 10-21 career record and poor recent results in challenger-level matches
• • Market-implied probability for Fiona (1.06) is extremely high (~94%), inconsistent with limited form data
• • No usable data provided on Anina Lanz, creating substantial informational uncertainty about the longshot