Highlights

• • Favourite at 1.019 appears correctly priced vs our conservative 98.0% estimate
• • Home long-shot looks enticing numerically but lacks supporting information to justify the implied upset probability

Pros

• + Avoids taking a marginally negative-expected-value bet
• + Conservative approach protects bankroll when no reliable data is available

Cons

• - If there were unobserved factors (injury, withdrawal risk) the market price could be mispriced
• - Misses the small chance of a large payout on the home long-shot if an upset were likely

Details

The market strongly favours the away player (Sinja Kraus) at 1.019, implying ~98.13% win probability. With no external match data available (surface, injuries, H2H, form), we adopt a conservative estimate very close to the market: an estimated true win probability for the away player of 98.0%. Using that estimate the expected return on a bet at 1.019 is slightly negative (EV = 0.98 * 1.019 - 1 = -0.00138), so there is no value to back the favourite. The home price (36.21) implies a ~2.76% chance; absent corroborating evidence of a significant reason to expect an upset, we cannot justify taking the long-shot despite its tempting payout. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for away is ~98.13%, and our conservative estimate is 98.0%
• • No external research available on surface, injuries, recent form or H2H to justify diverging from the market
• • Home odds (36.21) imply a very low upset probability (~2.76%) and would need compelling evidence to be considered value