Highlights

• • Market implies Ceuca ~37% but we estimate ~45%
• • Positive EV of ~21.5% at the current 2.70 price

Pros

• + Larger career sample and higher historical win rate supports a higher true probability
• + Experience and demonstrated play on clay reduce downside versus a small-sample opponent

Cons

• - Both players arrive off recent losses, introducing short-term form risk
• - Limited head-to-head/contextual match-up details and potential hidden factors (injury/fitness) increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Ann Ceuca at 2.70 -> 37.0% implied) to our estimated win probability for Ceuca. Ann Ceuca has a long career sample with an overall win rate (~52.4%) and regular play on clay, while Aleksandra Pozarenko has a small sample (10-21, ~32.3% overall) despite being listed as the market favorite. Recent match entries show both players arriving off losses, so short-term form is weak for both, but the larger career sample and demonstrated clay experience for Ceuca reduce variance and argue she is underpriced by the market. Using these inputs we estimate Ceuca's true chance at 45.0%, which produces positive expected value at the current decimal price of 2.70 (EV = 0.45*2.70 - 1 = +0.215). Given the market strongly favors Pozarenko (1.41 -> 70.9% implied) despite her weaker career win rate and limited match history, we see value on the home side at available prices.

Key factors

• • Ceuca's larger career sample and higher overall win rate (559-507) vs Pozarenko's small sample (10-21)
• • Both players show recent losses, so form is not a clear advantage for either; experience favors Ceuca on clay
• • Market heavily favors the away player (1.41) which appears inconsistent with career records and creates value on Ceuca