Highlights

• • Away favorite 1.40 implies ~71% win chance which clashes with Pozarenko's documented form and record
• • Home price 2.71 exceeds our fair-price threshold (1.724) and yields positive EV

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between market-implied probability and Pozarenko's documented win rate and recent form
• + Strong positive EV at widely-available home price

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on the home player increases uncertainty around the true probability
• - Assessment relies heavily on negative signal from Pozarenko rather than positive evidence on the home player

Details

We view value on the home side (Ann Akaasha Ceuca) because the market is pricing Aleksandra Pozarenko as a heavy favorite (1.40) despite the limited research showing Pozarenko has a weak overall record (10-21 in 31 career matches) and recent losing form on hard courts. With Pozarenko's career win rate (~32%) and recent results, we assess that the market is overestimating her win probability in this matchup. Conservatively estimating the home player's true win probability at 58% yields a minimum fair decimal price of 1.724; the offered home price of 2.71 therefore contains positive expected value. We have leaned conservative on our probability due to sparse direct data on the home player and the surface being clay (which Pozarenko has played but without strong supporting results), and the margin still indicates meaningful value at the current price.

Key factors

• • Aleksandra Pozarenko's poor career record (10-21) and recent losses reduce her realistic win chance
• • Market prices favor Pozarenko heavily (1.40) which appears overstated versus available performance data
• • Limited data on the home player increases model uncertainty but amplifies value when market overprices the away