Anna Burchak vs Emma Mazzoni
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Emma Mazzoni at 16.0 because even a conservative 8% true chance exceeds the market-implied 6.25%, producing a positive expected value of ~0.28 units per 1 unit staked; this is a high-risk upset play.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability 6.25% vs our conservative estimate 8%
- • EV at current odds: +0.28 (28% ROI)
Pros
- + Significant upside if the underdog pulls an upset (large decimal odds)
- + Our conservative estimate still exceeds market-implied probability
Cons
- - Limited opponent data and strong bookmaker favoritism increase uncertainty
- - Mazzoni's recent form is poor, so the actual probability could be lower than our estimate
Details
We compare the market price (Emma Mazzoni at 16.0 => implied win probability 6.25%) to our estimate of her true chance. The available research shows Mazzoni has a 10-21 career record (≈32% raw win rate) across clay and hard, but her recent results are poor with multiple losses up to 01-Sep-2025. Because we lack any positive information on the opponent and must respect the bookmaker's heavy favorite pricing, we conservatively discount Mazzoni's baseline rate to account for opponent strength and bad recent form, arriving at an estimated true probability of 8.0%. At decimal 16.0 this yields EV = 0.08*16.0 - 1 = +0.28 (28% ROI). The market is pricing her at ~6.25%, so a conservative 8% estimate still produces value. We recommend the away upset only because expected_value > 0 at the current widely-available price of 16.0, but the opportunity is high-risk given limited data and heavy favourite dynamics.
Key factors
- • Career win rate 10-21 (≈32%) across clay and hard
- • Recent form shows multiple losses up to 01-Sep-2025, warranting a discount to baseline
- • Bookmaker price (16.0) implies only a 6.25% chance — below our conservative 8% estimate