Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Biolay is ~64.1%; our estimate is 70%
• • Required fair odds = 1.429; current offer 1.56 yields positive EV

Pros

• + Clear experience and quality edge in favor of Biolay
• + Current odds (1.56) exceed our minimum fair odds (1.429), producing EV

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for both players, injecting short-term variance
• - Surface/venue specifics for this match are not fully detailed in the research

Details

We favour Sophia Biolay. The market prices her at 1.56 (implied probability 64.1%), but the research shows a large experience and career-quality gap: Biolay has 1,066 career matches and a positive overall record (559-507) across all surfaces, while Anna Dvorackova has a very small sample (32 matches, 10-22) and recent losses. Both have recent defeats, but Biolay's deep match experience and demonstrated adaptability on hard courts lead us to assign a materially higher true win probability than the market. Using our estimated true probability of 70%, the required fair decimal price is 1.429; the current price of 1.56 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation details: implied probability at 1.56 = 0.641; our p = 0.70; expected value = 0.70 * 1.56 - 1 = 0.092 (9.2% ROI). We account for bookmaker overround (~7.6%) but still find value given the experience differential and surface compatibility.

Key factors

• • Large career experience edge for Biolay (1066 matches vs 32)
• • Superior overall win-loss record and multi-surface experience for Biolay
• • Both players have recent losses, but Biolay's depth reduces upset probability