Anna Frost vs Jian Ibrahim
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices. The favorite looks likely but the odds are too short versus our conservative 72% estimate; wait for better pricing before betting.
Highlights
- • Market-implied away win ~76%, our conservative estimate 72%
- • Away needs odds ≥1.389 to be +EV; current 1.309 is too short
Pros
- + Clear market signal: Jian is the strong favorite, consistent with our conservative view
- + Gap to value is small for the favorite — a modest price move could create value
Cons
- - No match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) was available to refine probabilities
- - Current prices for both sides produce negative EV under conservative estimates
Details
We have no external data returned, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market makes Jian Ibrahim the strong favorite (implied ~76%), but conservatively we estimate Jian's true win probability at 72% and Anna Frost at 28% given the available information gap and typical ITF dynamics. At our estimate the away line (1.309) does not offer value (EV ≈ -0.058 for a 1-unit stake) and the home line (3.25) also lacks value (EV ≈ -0.090 at our 28% estimate). The away side is the closer candidate for value if prices drift higher, but current prices are too short relative to our conservative probabilities, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No independent data returned — we use conservative baseline assumptions
- • Market heavily favors the away player (Jian) but implied probability is slightly higher than our conservative estimate
- • Small improvement in away odds (to ≥1.389) would be required to reach positive EV