Highlights

• • Market-implied: ~72.9% for the home favourite
• • Our conservative estimate: 70% -> fair odds ~1.429 (higher than market)

Pros

• + Favourite has a clear market edge indicating perceived strength
• + Current price is widely available and liquid

Cons

• - At our conservative estimate the favourite is slightly overvalued (negative EV)
• - No match-specific data to justify more aggressive probability (surface, form, injuries unknown)

Details

We have no external data beyond the posted market prices, so we take a conservative stance. The market moneyline (home 1.372) implies a probability of ~72.9%. Given the uncertainty around surface, form, injuries and H2H and to avoid overestimating the favourite, we conservatively estimate Anna Hertel's true win probability at 70.0%. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.429, which is higher than the available 1.372, producing a small negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend backing the favourite at the current market price because it appears marginally over-priced relative to our conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data available (form, injuries, head-to-head)
• • Market-implied probability for home (1/1.372 ≈ 72.9%)
• • Conservative estimated true probability set at 70% to account for uncertainty
• • Small negative edge vs. market when using conservative probability