Anna Hertel vs Maja Pawelska
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected at current prices: the favorite is priced too short relative to our conservative 80% win estimate, and the underdog is priced too long to justify a contrarian stake.
Highlights
- • Favorite implied probability (from 1.161) ≈ 86.1% — higher than our 80% estimate
- • Required upset probability for the away at 4.51 is ~22.2%, above our conservative upset chance
Pros
- + Market consensus correctly identifies a clear favorite
- + Low odds on the favorite reduce variance if one wanted exposure (but not value)
Cons
- - Favorite price is too short to offer positive expected value versus our conservative estimate
- - Lack of research (surface, fitness, recent form, H2H) increases uncertainty and argues for caution
Details
We compared the current market prices (Anna Hertel 1.161, Maja Pawelska 4.51) to a conservative estimated true probability for the favorite. With no external research available (no surface, fitness, form, or H2H data), we assume a cautious probability that Anna Hertel wins of 80%. That estimate is lower than the implied market probability from the 1.161 price (≈86.1%), so the price on the favorite offers negative expected value after accounting for the bookmaker margin. Conversely, the underdog price (4.51) implies a required win probability of ~22.2%, and our conservative estimate for an upset (≈20%) is below that threshold, so it also lacks value. Given the absence of additional information and the market's heavy pricing of the favorite, we decline to recommend a bet because neither side clears our value threshold.
Key factors
- • No external research available (surface, injuries, form, H2H unknown) — we use conservative estimates
- • Market heavily favors the home player; implied probability from 1.161 is ≈86.1%, above our 80% estimate
- • Bookmaker overround reduces value; neither side exceeds our estimated true probability thresholds