Highlights

• • Home implied probability 74.6% vs our estimate 73% — slight market edge to bookmaker
• • Calculated EV on home price ≈ -2.2% ROI, so no long-term value

Pros

• + Clear favorite as priced by the market (short favorite often indicates higher win probability)
• + Low variance in short-priced favorites when underlying estimate is accurate

Cons

• - Market price is slightly shorter than our conservative probability, producing negative EV
• - Lack of supplemental information increases model uncertainty and risk of estimation error

Details

We compared the listed market prices (Home 1.34 / Away 3.00) to a conservative internal estimate. The market-implied probability for the home player is 1/1.34 = 74.6%, while we conservatively estimate Anna Kubareva's true win probability at 73%. At our estimate the expected value on the listed home price is EV = 0.73 * 1.34 - 1 = -0.0218 (approx -2.2% ROI), so the price contains no positive value for a disciplined value-betting approach. The market also implies ~33.3% for the away player; given the market vig (sum of implieds ≈107.9%) and the absence of supplemental data (surface, form, injuries, H2H), we prefer a conservative estimate and do not find value on Ekaterina at 3.00 either. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (74.6%) slightly exceeds our conservative estimate (73%)
• • Bookmaker vig present (implied probabilities sum ≈107.9%), reducing available value
• • No external data (surface, injuries, H2H or form) returned — we apply conservative estimates