Highlights

• • Kubareva is the clear experience and win-rate favorite
• • Current market price (1.241) is marginally too short vs our estimate

Pros

• + Significant career and match-volume advantage for Kubareva
• + Both players have recent hard-court activity, favoring the more experienced player

Cons

• - Short market price leaves no positive EV at available odds
• - Upset risk in tennis remains non-negligible despite experience gap

Details

We compared the market pricing (Anna Kubareva 1.241 => implied 80.6%) to our estimate of true win probability. Kubareva has a large career sample (559-507 across 1066 matches) and clear experience advantage over Yasmin Ezzat (10-21, 31 matches), and both have recent hard-court activity—so we estimate Kubareva's win probability at 78.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.282; the offered 1.241 is too short and produces negative expected value, so we do not recommend backing the favorite at current quotes.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Kubareva 1066 matches vs Ezzat 31 matches
• • Career win-rate advantage: Kubareva ~52% vs Ezzat ~32%
• • Surface/venue: both have hard-court experience; Kubareva has broader surface history
• • Market implies ~80.6% for Kubareva, slightly above our 78% estimate