Anna Laguza vs Eliska Tichackova

Highlights

• • Favorite heavily priced at 1.10 (implied 90.9%)
• • Our conservative true-win estimate for the favorite is 85%, which yields negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Clear market signal that Tichackova is expected to win; liquidity likely good on the favorite
• + If additional information on Anna Laguza showed she is very weak, the favorite could become a reasonable play

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.10) offers no value versus our probability model (negative EV)
• - Insufficient information on the underdog (Anna Laguza) increases outcome uncertainty

Details

We find the market extremely short on Eliska Tichackova (decimal 1.10, implied 90.9%). The available research shows Tichackova with a 10-21 career record (31 matches) and clear recent losses on hard courts, suggesting form deterioration. With no reliable information on Anna Laguza in the provided research, there is high uncertainty about how strong the underdog is, but the favorite price looks overconfident given Tichackova's recent results and thin match history. We estimate Tichackova's true win probability substantially below the market-implied 90.9% (we estimate 85%), which produces negative expected value at the current 1.10 price (EV = 0.85*1.10 - 1 = -0.065). The home line (6.50) implies only a 15.38% chance, which could be plausible but we lack data on Laguza to justify backing the underdog. Because neither side offers positive EV versus our probability model at the quoted prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Tichackova's career record is 10-21 with limited match volume (31 matches), indicating inconsistent results
• • Recent results show losses on hard courts, suggesting poor current form
• • Market-implied probability (90.9% for the favorite) looks too high given the documented recent form and lack of data on the underdog