Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Smekalova (1.13) despite a ~31% career win rate
• • Home at 5.5 exceeds our min fair odds (~3.704) giving substantial EV

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our conservative probability estimate
• + Positive EV (≈+48.5% ROI per unit at current odds) using conservative p

Cons

• - Very limited data on Anna Laguza increases model uncertainty
• - Smekalova may have non-public factors (ranking, seed, recent training) supporting market price that we cannot verify

Details

We find clear market mispricing. The market makes Magdalena Smekalova an 88.5% favorite at 1.13, but her documented career win rate (10 wins in 32 matches, ~31%) and recent straight losses on hard courts do not justify an ~89% true-win probability. There is no provided data on Anna Laguza, which increases uncertainty, but that unknown combined with Smekalova's weak track record implies the home underdog price (5.5, implied 18.2%) contains value. Conservatively we estimate Anna's true probability at 27%; at that probability the minimum fair odds are ~3.704 and the current 5.5 quote offers a large positive expectation (EV = 0.27*5.5 - 1 = +0.485). We use the current home decimal 5.5 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Magdalena Smekalova career win rate low (10-22, ~31%)
• • Smekalova recent form shows consecutive losses on hard courts
• • Market price (1.13) implies an implausibly high win probability
• • No public data provided for Anna Laguza increases uncertainty but also suggests market may be overconfident
• • Current home odds (5.5) are well above our calculated fair threshold (~3.704)