Highlights

• • Market implies Seda 74.4% win probability; our estimate ~68%
• • Required decimal odds for value on Seda: >= 1.471

Pros

• + Clear market signal that Seda is favourite (short price)
• + Ebster shows some recent losses in the supplied form data

Cons

• - Current favourite price is too short to offer positive EV by our estimate
• - Research lacks direct head-to-head or detailed info on Seda to justify a larger divergence from market

Details

We compare the market price (Seda Baslilar 1.344 -> implied ~74.4%) to our estimate of the true probability. Anna Lena Ebster has a long career with a marginally positive overall win rate (~52.4%) but shows clear recent weakness in the short form data provided (recent losses), and we have no positive evidence that she reverses form vs. this opponent. Given the limited data on Seda Baslilar in the research, the market strongly favours her; we estimate Seda's true chance at roughly 68%. At the offered price of 1.344 that implies a negative expected value (EV = 0.68 * 1.344 - 1 = -0.086). To be profitable we would need the market to offer at least ~1.471 on Seda. Because current prices are shorter than our required threshold, there is no value bet here.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favours the away player (1.344 -> implied ~74.4%)
• • Anna Lena Ebster long career but recent listed results show losses and possible form issues
• • Available data on Seda Baslilar is limited in the research, so we remain conservative in our probability estimate