Anna Petkovic vs Marie Villet
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices Anna at ~72.4% but our model estimates ~70% true probability — no value at 1.382. Wait for higher odds (>1.429) before backing the favorite.
Highlights
- • Anna is the clear experience favorite but recent form dampens an overwhelming edge
- • Current odds for Anna (~1.382) are slightly too short for our confidence level
Pros
- + Clear experience and match-count advantage for Anna
- + Marie’s limited match history and lower win rate suggest lower upside for the underdog
Cons
- - Anna’s recent results include losses; career win-rate is not overwhelmingly dominant
- - Uncertainty on surface/tournament level and lack of H2H data increase projection variance
Details
We compared the market price (Anna Petkovic 1.382 implied ≈72.4%) to our estimate of Anna's true win probability. Anna has a large experience advantage (559-507 career record across many seasons and surfaces) while Marie Villet is a relative newcomer with a weak record (10-21 in 31 matches). That said, both players show recent losses and Anna's long career win-rate (≈52%) and patchy recent form reduce our confidence in a very large edge. Balancing experience, career win-rates, and recent results, we estimate Anna's true win probability at ~70.0%, which is slightly below the market-implied 72.4% and therefore does not represent positive expected value at the current moneyline of 1.382.
Key factors
- • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Anna Petkovic (1066 matches vs 31)
- • Marie Villet's limited sample size and lower career win rate (10-21) reduce her reliability
- • Both players show recent losses; Anna's recent form is not dominant enough to clear the market implied probability