Highlights

• • Away price 1.16 implies ~86% — we judge this too high given In-Albon’s recent results
• • Home 4.92 becomes profitable if true win probability ≥20.3%; we estimate ~28%

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our estimated fair odds
• + In-Albon’s provided recent record and losses suggest vulnerability

Cons

• - Research contains limited data on the home player, increasing uncertainty
• - Underdog betting is inherently higher variance despite positive EV

Details

We compare the market pricing to the limited performance data available for Ylena In-Albon. The book market heavily favours In-Albon at 1.16 (implied win probability ~86.2%), which requires an exceptionally high true win probability to be fair. The supplied profile shows In-Albon has a 10-21 record in the cited span and several recent losses, indicating vulnerability and form issues that make an 86% chance unlikely. With no positive data provided for the home player but given the away player’s poor recent results, we estimate Anna Pircher’s true win probability materially above the market-implied 20.3% for the 4.92 price. At our estimated true probability (0.28) the 4.92 quote offers meaningful value (EV = 0.28*4.92 - 1 = 0.3776, or ~37.8% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home underdog only because the current odds are well above our min-required fair odds (3.571).

Key factors

• • Market strongly favours In-Albon (1.16) implying ~86% win probability
• • Provided profile shows In-Albon 10-21 across the cited span with recent losses, indicating form concerns
• • Large underdog price for Anna Pircher (4.92) creates value if her true chance is >20%