Highlights

• • Implied market probability (1.19) = 84.0%
• • Our estimated true probability = 78% → negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Udvardy has experience on clay and hard so surface mismatch risk is limited
• + Market strongly favors Udvardy, reflecting likely ranking/quality gap

Cons

• - Udvardy's recent results are poor (10-21), reducing confidence in a >84% win rate
• - No data provided on Anna Rogers creates unquantified upset potential

Details

We compared the market price (Udvardy 1.19 => implied 84.0%) to our assessment of Udvardy's true win probability. The available profile shows a subpar recent record (10-21) with recent losses on both clay and hard, indicating form risk despite surface experience. With no scouting data on Anna Rogers provided, uncertainty around matchup specifics is high. We estimate Udvardy's true win probability at ~78%, which is below the market-implied 84% — at the current price (1.19) that produces a negative expected value. To be profitable versus the 1.19 market we would need to believe Udvardy's win chance exceeds ~84%, which the available information does not support. Therefore we do not recommend taking the favorite at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Udvardy is ~84%, higher than our estimated 78%
• • Udvardy's recent form is weak (10-21) with recent losses on clay and hard
• • No information provided on Anna Rogers increases matchup uncertainty