Highlights

• • Udvardy’s listed recent record in the research is 10-21 (≈32.3% win rate).
• • Home odds 4.67 imply only ~21.4% — big gap versus our estimated ~67.7%.

Pros

• + Large numerical edge between market price and probability derived from the provided Udvardy data.
• + If the research’s Udvardy win rate is representative, the home line is materially mispriced.

Cons

• - Recommendation depends heavily on a single-player profile; no direct data on Anna Rogers in the provided research.
• - High uncertainty about surface, opponent context, injuries, or other match-specific factors not included in the research.

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market price (Panna Udvardy 1.215 implied ~82.3% win probability) and the on-record performance shown in the research. Udvardy’s listed record in the research is 10 wins in 31 matches (win rate ~32.3%) over the recent career span, which implies a much lower true win probability than the market price. Given the lack of separate data on Anna Rogers in the provided research, the simplest consistent estimate is to treat Anna’s chance as 1 - Udvardy’s empirical win rate (≈67.74%). At the available home moneyline of 4.67 (implied ~21.4%), that estimated true probability produces a large positive expected return (EV = p * 4.67 - 1). The market appears to have over-favored Udvardy relative to the empirical performance in the research, creating clear value on Anna Rogers at the quoted price. We note high uncertainty because the research set is limited (no direct data on Anna, surface/context not fully specified), so this recommendation relies on the provided Udvardy statistics and the current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Udvardy (1.215) is ~82.3%, which is far above Udvardy’s empirical win rate in the research
• • Research shows Udvardy 10-21 (31 matches) → empirical win rate ~32.3%, implying Anna has ~67.7% chance under simple complement assumption
• • Quoted home odds 4.67 imply only ~21.4% chance; far below our estimated probability, producing positive EV