Highlights

• • Market implies ~56.2% for Anna; we estimate ~62%
• • Evans' recent results and season record suggest underperformance

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ≈ 10.4% ROI)
• + Clear negative signals on the opponent's form and season record

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Anna Shkutova in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Market overround and short-format variance in tennis can erase expected value in a single match

Details

We find value backing the home player, Anna Shkutova, at the current moneyline of 1.78. The market-implied probability for the home side is ~56.2%, but our assessment places Anna's true win probability higher (62%). This edge is driven primarily by Elizabeth Evans' weak overall record (10-21 for the period covered) and poor recent form with multiple straight losses on hard courts in early September. Evans has limited recent success and the data shows struggles on the surfaces she plays; there is no evidence of mitigating factors such as a significant recent upswing or clear matchup advantage. Given the overround in the market, Anna needs to be priced above ~61.3% true probability to justify the 1.78 price; our modelled probability of 62% clears that threshold, producing a positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side only because EV > 0 at the supplied odds.

Key factors

• • Elizabeth Evans' overall record is weak (10-21) indicating limited baseline winning ability
• • Recent form for Evans shows multiple losses on hard courts in September, signalling poor momentum
• • Market-implied probability for Anna (56.2%) is below our estimated true probability (62%), creating value