Anna Blinkova vs Kyoka Okamura
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find strong value backing Kyoka Okamura at 8.36 because the market underestimates her winning chances versus an opponent with comparable form and surface history.
Highlights
- • Book implies Okamura ~12% chance; our estimate ~45%
- • EV at current price is strongly positive (≈ +2.76 units per 1 unit stake)
Pros
- + Large margin between our win probability and market-implied probability — strong value
- + Both players' profiles and records support a much closer matchup than the price suggests
Cons
- - Heavy favorite outcomes are common in short-priced mismatches; the market may have inside/contextual information not in provided research
- - Our probability estimate is necessarily coarse given limited data; variance in qualifiers is high
Details
We see a clear market mispricing: the book gives Anna Blinkova an implied win probability of ~92.4% (1.082) while Kyoka Okamura is priced at 8.36 (implied ~11.96%). The research shows both players have nearly identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface experience (hard and clay) with no injury information or dominant form advantage for Blinkova. Given parity in profiles and matchups, we estimate Okamura's true chance to win materially exceeds the market-implied ~12% — we estimate ~45%. At that probability the away line 8.36 offers substantial value (EV = 0.45*8.36 - 1 = 2.762). Therefore we recommend the away side because the current price is a large positive-expectation opportunity relative to our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical recent records (10-21) and surface exposure — no clear form gap
- • Market heavily favors Blinkova (1.082) producing an implausibly low implied chance for Okamura (~12%)
- • No injuries or contextual factors in the research to justify the extreme skew in price