Anna Kmiecik vs Hanna Jankowska
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on Anna at 1.17 — the market is overpricing her relative to her recent form and the limited available data, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~85.5% for Anna (1/1.17) versus our 55% estimate
- • Negative EV at current odds: approx -0.357 per unit staked
Pros
- + Anna is the clear market favorite which could indicate underlying class advantage
- + Match is in a local-level event (Radom) where favorites often progress
Cons
- - Anna's 10-21 record and recent losses undermine confidence in such a short price
- - Lack of opponent data creates meaningful uncertainty around any positive edge
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Anna Kmiecik (1.17 => 85.5%) to our assessment of her true chance. Anna's documented 10-21 career record and recent losses indicate weakened form on the available surfaces; with no reliable information on Hanna Jankowska in the supplied research, we take a conservative true win probability of 55%. At p=0.55 the fair decimal price is ~1.818; the offered price of 1.17 is sharply shorter and produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.55*1.17 - 1 = -0.357). Because the market price implies far more certainty than the available performance data supports, we do not recommend backing Anna at current odds.
Key factors
- • Anna Kmiecik's recent form and 10-21 career record suggest lower reliability than market implies
- • Market-implied probability for Anna (85.5%) is substantially higher than our estimated 55%
- • No usable information on Hanna Jankowska in the supplied research increases uncertainty and reduces confidence in the short price