Anna Kmiecik vs Vicky Van De Peer
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value present: the favorite (Vicky) is priced too short relative to our 62% win estimate, and the underdog (Anna) doesn't appear underrated enough to justify a bet.
Highlights
- • Vicky priced at 1.457 implies ~68.6% chance vs our 62% estimate (negative EV).
- • Anna's implied price (~39.7%) still overstates her chance given limited career wins and recent form.
Pros
- + Clear analytical gap between market-implied probability and our estimate for the favorite
- + Conservative probability estimate based on career sample sizes and recent results
Cons
- - Limited recent-match detail and no H2H or injury data in the provided research
- - Surface/venue specifics are not decisive in the available data, adding uncertainty to any model edge
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimated true win probability for the favorite (Vicky Van De Peer). Market odds: Vicky 1.457 (implied ~68.6%), Anna 2.52 (implied ~39.7%). From the available performance data, Vicky has a much larger career sample (559-507) and clear experience advantage versus Anna (10-21 in a shorter 31-match sample), but recent results show both players have dropped matches recently. We estimate Vicky's true win probability at 62.0%, meaning fair decimal price ~1.613. At the available favorite price of 1.457 (implied 68.6%) the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.098 per 1 unit stake). Anna's implied likelihood (≈39.7%) also appears slightly above our assessment of her realistic win chance given form and career numbers, so she also offers no value. Therefore we recommend no side because neither price offers positive expected value compared with our probability model.
Key factors
- • Large experience and career win-rate advantage for Vicky Van De Peer
- • Anna Kmiecik has a small sample (31 matches) and a sub-0.350 career win rate
- • Market-implied probability for Vicky (≈68.6%) exceeds our estimated true probability (62%), removing value